Sobering statistical projections here by Church Growth Modelling. (H/T a North American colleague).
I do not think that if we - by a miracle* - could gather together the relevant ACANZP stats we would be better than the CofE and likely we would lie between them and the Anglican churches in Wales, Scotland and the States. (*We have no annual stats for church attendance).
Of course stats such as those graphed in the article cannot tell us whether (say) there might be a levelling out to a self-sustaining lower-than-current attendance flatline graph. And they do not allow for revival.
But such stats raise significant and urgent questions.
Questions, for instance, about what it is that we are doing (and not doing) that contribute to decline and what it is that we are doing that contribute (in the midst of decline) to growth and thus to possible new strategies whole Anglican churches could embrace moving forward.
On the one hand I am optimistic about ways in which we can do better. For instance, striving relentlessly to preach the gospel in ways relevant to ever changing contexts. It can be done and there are churches that are doing this. Some of them are Anglican :)
On the other hand, I am worried. In Western society (at least) there is a materialism, a sense of optimism and a general good health which provides a comfortable and long-lasting equivalent to the kingdom of God. If salvation is about the whole person being well, then human life has never been better than it is in the West where a raft of human ailments have been overcome and an array of pleasant opportunities for a good life are accessible by a huge majority. Proclamation of the gospel to a satisfied society is hard, hard work.
But Church Growth Modelling goes on to analyse these Anglican situations in a subsequent post.
You can of course read that post for yourself and digest what it says. Spoiler: evangelical strength is important!
For me, here are two key sentences, as CGM suggests the CofE is in a better state than TEC, SEC, or the Welsh Anglicans:
"When congregations ask for my advice on why they decline I first ask them what they believe, not what they do. Actions follow from beliefs. Perhaps the Church of England has, on average, stronger beliefs than the other three; beliefs that encourage growth."
For a much fuller analysis of the two posts, from a perspective honed by working within the CofE (but with interesting thoughts re other churches, including TEC), see Ian Paul's thoughts here.
Ian Paul adds further thoughts here.
Catholicity and covenant weighs in here.